Automotive Monthly Newsletter &&
. Podcast: LISTEN TO PODCASTIts fall once again, which only indicates one thing … attention is turned.
to the aftermarket! S&P Global Mobility took part in 2.
events recently– Automechanika Frankfurt, a five-day event on.
the Frankfurt exhibit premises in September, self-heralded as the.
worlds leading trade fair for the automotive service industry, and.
AAPEX in Las Vegas on 1-3 November, with total visitor numbers.
expected to be over 160,000 for AAPEX and SEMA combined.On the opening day of AAPEX, our resident specialist Todd Campau.
presented our insights into the emerging top-five aftermarket.
patterns we can see within the automobile industry.Top-five aftermarket trendsCars getting older, aftermarket stakeholders stay.
cool about it.Augmented by the lack of brand-new cars and truck supply, also the issues over.
economic stability and the constrained brand-new cars and truck supply, vehicles are.
being kept longer and for that reason the rates of cars and truck parc scrappage are.
falling. With these traditionally low levels of scrappage, even with.
the softer brand-new cars and truck sales, the trend is revealing that the cars in.
operation (VIO) are continuing to increase. The executives we.
interviewed at both shows did not appear too concerned about this as.
the result will not be perceived before five or 6 years.
Meanwhile, for their cousins in the aftersales sector, which.
normally depend upon the 1-4-year-old section automobiles, the feedback.
we collected was quite the opposite.The aging fleet, with vehicles being kept longer, the average.
age has now risen from just over 11 years in 2012 to 12.2 years in.
2022. The most significant development sector of the fleet is among the.
6-13-year-old automobiles, a mate that was already poised for.
considerable growth in volume prior to the existing economic environment,.
and is showing the most yearly miles took a trip, marking it an.
aftermarket sweet spot. These more-traveled cars might be on.
their third or 2nd owner and likely to already be a prime.
aftermarket customer.Mileage has actually returned but is differentAnnual miles traveled has actually returned and even surpassed prior pandemic.
overalls, however the structure of the miles took a trip have actually altered as.
we have actually emerged from the pandemic. Insights originated from congestion.
data have shown that rush hours have actually not returned to.
pre-pandemic levels in all places, while in lots of locales.
congestion throughout the day has actually shown a slight uptick as.
chauffeurs are spreading trips throughout the day.The aggregated effect of the changing car miles traveled is.
expected to include about 1 portion indicate the general VMT for.
2022, increasing to 3.5 trillion miles for guest automobiles and light.
trucks, which will fall within the variety of typical year-on-year.
VMT change prior to the pandemic. That stated, the regional modification is.
anticipated to differ significantly year on year, ranging from a 1.2% decrease.
in Mississippi to a 5.4% increase in New York. Need for.
aftermarket repair and maintenance opportunities based on miles.
traveled is expected to see varied development from area to.
region.Digitization of the workshop as connection.
risesWith lorry connectivity now allowed with longer functional.
connections, we expect that one-third of the VIO will be linked.
by 2024 and 5G connectivity will be the control service for brand-new.
cars in 2027. By the end of the years, it is anticipated that.
over one-third of the VIO will be linked, and 95% of them will.
be capable of getting manufacturer-driven software with.
over-the-air (OTA) updates.From Automechanika, and the conversation with diagnostic suppliers,.
OTA updates were expected to result in less service warranty check outs and.
could decrease profits opportunities for OEMs. Focus has actually been on.
successfully establishing relationships with OEMs and protecting gain access to.
to their safe and secure gateways to make it possible for the aftermarkets ability to.
complete all repair work. This has provided many suppliers the ability to.
offer this level of connectivity on a subscription or.
pay-per-repair basis and likewise use technical repair work solutions and.
guidance.Autonomy opportunitiesIncreased adoption of automated driver assist systems.
( ADAS) will continue to permeate the automobile fleet at speed. As an.
example, in 2022, more than 60% of brand-new designs have adaptive cruise.
control compared to about 15% just five years back. As a share of.
VIO, the significance of vehicles allowed with adaptive cruise.
control has risen from 0% in 2015 to 12% in 2022. To the body repair industry, as the innovation continues to.
permeate the VIO, it could influence the rates of collision and.
the increased adoption of cosmetic and smart repair work service.
offerings.The primary chances that were presented at AAPEX and.
Automechanika were that ADAS systems are a focal point as they were.
vulnerable to the results from bad roads conditions and wheel.
impacts. The value of ADAS supplies an opportunity to service.
offerings around calibration and safety checks, along with the.
associated need to ensure that wheel alignment was examined and.
adjusted to make sure all ADAS systems remained operational and safe.
These services offered a considerable profits and upsell.
opportunity.Transition to electrificationWith VIO of 1.4 million electric lorries (EVs) in the US.
presently, a conservative price quote puts that overall to be close to.
17 million VIO by 2030 as new designs will increase from 26 in 2021.
to more than 250 in 2030. Conservative and aggressive outlooks lead.
to total share of the car fleet of less than 15% in.
2030– even as EVs reveal considerable growth in new registrations,.
improvement of the fleet will take years.More states in the United States are proposing policies to limit new.
registrations to either zero- or low-emission automobiles, and comparable.
patterns are following in Europe, which is creating additional.
influencing factors regarding why we have actually seen consumers choosing to.
embrace EVs faster. Current studies show continued reticence.
in customer acceptance. In 2021, 81% of those surveyed would have.
considered buying a battery-electric vehicle (BEV); nevertheless, in.
2022, only 58% shared that view. The factor for this change appears.
to be uncertainty toward EV technology, prices, charging.
facilities, and battery innovation being barriers. Pragmatism.
is strongly encouraged in carrying out an ev and establishing.
method because while the transition will take some time, preparation.
will be crucial to a successful future.Of the new vehicle registrations in 2022 in the US, the light truck.
sector dominated the electrical section, representing 60% of all EVs.
registered.Although there will be difficulties, the future of the aftermarket.
still presents an aging cars and truck parc with increased repair work.
opportunities. This aging is most likely to continue as the financial.
impacts have a devastating result on new automobile sales while the.
constraints on new vehicle supply are most likely to continue through 2024.
BEV growth is great, the proportion versus overall VIO.
suggests there is still care, with numerous waiting to gain.
confidence in the technology and facilities prior to switching to.
fully electric. ——————————————- Dive Deeper– Check out our automobile.
insightsDownload Presentation: 5 Automotive.
Patterns Impacting the North America AftermarketWebinar Replay: Digitization of the.
vehicle aftermarket through connectivityRead the Blog: Average age of.
automobiles in the United States increases to 12.2 years, according to S&P.
Global MobilityReport Available: Analysis of.
lorry miles took a trip trends in the US and the influence on the.
AftermarketInsightTop 5 Replacement Parts for.
Commercial Vehicles. Find out more.
This short article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.