This post was released by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately handled department of S&P Global.

January 2023 United States car sales are anticipated to advance
mildly from the year-ago level; seasonally adjusted annual rate
( SAAR) will jump once again.With volume for January 2023 projected at 1.015 million systems,
US auto sales are approximated to translate to an estimated sales pace
of 15.5 million systems (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR).
While the SAAR reading would be the greatest month-to-month level given that May
2021, weve seen this pattern prior to and the underlying dynamics of
the marketplace remain in flux.” Auto consumers continue to be affected by an unpredictable purchase
environment. While favorable developments relating to mildly
pulling away vehicle rates and rising pockets of inventory bode
well, rates of interest remain high and economic headwinds continue,”
stated Chris Hopson, primary expert at S&P Global Mobility.
” None of these issues will be fixed rapidly as we move through
2023. The January 2023 expected SAAR reading might have leapt from
the month-prior reading of 13.3 million systems, however the unsteady
combination of consumers, stock and economic conditions will
dictate regular monthly brand-new lorry sales levels.” The S&P Global Mobility auto outlook for 2023 continues to
carry a countercyclical story: We expect production levels to
continue to establish even as economic conditions are anticipated to
degrade through the early phases of next year. The advancing
production levels, together with reports of continual retail order
books, recovering stock of lorries, and a fleet sector that
remains starved for item ought to provide some incentive to auto
need levels even as a financial recession looms. We forecast 2023
fiscal year volume of 14.8 million systems, a 7% increase from the
estimated 2022 tally.Sustained advancement of battery-electric car (BEV) sales
remains a constant assumption for 2023. BEV share is anticipated to
reach 7.4% in January 2023, an all-time record mix level, pushed by
the significant Tesla down rate modifications. While this is the
Shot in a BEV price war, the response of other automobile business
will determine whether the January mix level will be a blip in the
trend or a vibrant tipping point in the electrification progress of
the marketplace.